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  1. Abstract Aim

    Despite global biodiversity losses, trends at local and regional scales are context dependent. Recent studies have been criticized for lacking baselines preceding human impacts, and few such studies have addressed the landscape scale. Our aim was to quantify temporal trends in landscape‐scale tree diversity during an unambiguous period of massively increased anthropogenic disturbance and to test the hypothesis that land use can increase landscape‐scale diversity via increased environmental heterogeneity.

    Location

    Eastern USA.

    Time period

    1620–2008.

    Major taxa studied

    Trees.

    Methods

    We combined data from archival land surveys and modern‐day forest inventories in the north‐eastern USA to quantify tree genus diversity at the scale of towns (“landscapes”). We modelled change in diversity over time as a function of the proportion of the landscape historically converted to agriculture, historical temperature increases and nitrogen deposition, and other abiotic and spatial variables. We also tested for scale‐dependent changes in beta diversity.

    Results

    Overall, tree genus diversity (Shannon and Simpson indices) changed minimally over time on average, but the magnitude of change increased with the maximum historical percentage of the town in agriculture. Other predictor variables had minimal influence. Beta diversity increased over time for nearby pairs of towns and decreased over time for more distant towns.

    Main conclusions

    Forests have regrown on much former agricultural land, and our results support the hypothesis that increased landscape‐scale environmental heterogeneity, attributable to land use, increased tree diversity. Where agricultural land use was uncommon, declines in diversity might be attributable to effects of logging and fire suppression. Even the strongest driver of biodiversity loss at local and global scales (human land use) can lead to increases in biodiversity at the landscape scale, in addition to scale dependence of biotic differentiation versus homogenization.

     
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  2. Human activities are fundamentally altering biodiversity. Projections of declines at the global scale are contrasted by highly variable trends at local scales, suggesting that biodiversity change may be spatially structured. Here, we examined spatial variation in species richness and composition change using more than 50,000 biodiversity time series from 239 studies and found clear geographic variation in biodiversity change. Rapid compositional change is prevalent, with marine biomes exceeding and terrestrial biomes trailing the overall trend. Assemblage richness is not changing on average, although locations exhibiting increasing and decreasing trends of up to about 20% per year were found in some marine studies. At local scales, widespread compositional reorganization is most often decoupled from richness change, and biodiversity change is strongest and most variable in the oceans. 
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  3. Abstract Aims

    Both ecological drift and environmental heterogeneity can produce high beta diversity among communities, but only the effect of drift is expected to be enhanced in communities of small size. Few studies have explicitly tested the influence of community size on patterns of beta diversity. Here we applied a series of analyses aimed at testing the influence of drift versus environmental heterogeneity on beta diversity among tree communities on islands of variable size.

    Location

    Thousand Island Lake, Zhejiang Province, China.

    Methods

    We used data on mapped tree communities and environmental conditions for 20 small islands (<1 ha) and nine large islands (>1 ha) created via the construction of a hydroelectric dam in 1959. Beta diversity was calculated using abundance‐based multiple‐site dissimilarity based on the Bray–Curtis index. On the basis of the hypothesis of ecological drift among small islands, we tested for higher beta diversity among small than large islands using: (a) raw data (b) controlling for the number of individual sampled on a given island, and (c) controlling for the contiguous sampling area and thus for intra‐island environmental heterogeneity. We also tested the prediction that the relationship between species composition and environmental variables should be weaker on small islands using canonical correspondence analyses.

    Results

    Using raw data and controlling for the number of individuals, community dissimilarity was significantly greater among small islands than among large islands. However, when controlling for contiguous sampling area this difference disappeared. Contrary to the prediction based on ecological drift, the strength of overall composition–environment relationships was not significantly weaker for small islands in any of the analyses, and environmental heterogeneity increased faster with area among small islands than among large islands.

    Main Conclusions

    Despite a result using raw data that was consistent with the hypothesis of ecological drift, our full set of results clearly indicated the high beta diversity among small islands was more likely due to environmental heterogeneity rather than ecological drift. This result points to a clear need to control for sampling area among habitats of different size when testing for statistical signatures of drift.

     
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  4. Abstract

    The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is designed to facilitate an understanding of the impact of environmental change on ecological systems. Observations of plant diversity—responsive to changes in climate, disturbance, and land use, and ecologically linked to soil, biogeochemistry, and organisms—result in NEON data products that cross a range of organizational levels. Collections include samples of plant tissue to enable investigations of genetics, plot‐based observations of incidence and cover of native and non‐native species, observations of plant functional traits, archived vouchers of plants, and remote sensing airborne observations. Spatially integrating many ecological observations allows a description of the relationship of plant diversity to climate, land use, organisms, and substrates. Repeating the observations over decades and across the United States will iteratively improve our understanding of those relationships and allow for the testing of system‐level hypotheses as well as the development of predictions of future conditions.

     
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  5. Abstract

    Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. Overlap in the distributions of different drivers have important implications for biodiversity change attribution and the potential for interactive effects. However, the spatial relationships among different drivers and whether they differ between the terrestrial and marine realm has yet to be examined.

    We compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land‐use, resource exploitation, pollution, alien species potential and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the drivers and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different regions of the world.

    We found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas with high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g. in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution), whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g. in the Indo‐Pacific with high climate change and high fishing).

    We show that different regions of the world can be defined by Anthropogenic Threat Complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. We identify 11 ATCs that can be used to test hypotheses about patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem change, especially about the joint effects of multiple drivers.

    Our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic change, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world.

     
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